Diet Induced Obesity and Diabetes Enhance Mortality and Reduces Vaccine Efficacy for SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of October 2022, there have been over 625 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, including over 6.5 million deaths. Epidemiological studies have indicated that comorbidities of obesity and diabetes mellitus are associated with increased morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We determined how the comorbidities of obesity and diabetes affect morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated and adjuvanted spike nanoparticle (NVX-CoV2373) vaccinated mice. We find that obese/diabetic mice infected with SARS-CoV-2 have increased morbidity and mortality compared to age matched normal mice. Mice fed a high-fat diet (HFD) then vaccinated with NVX-CoV2373 produce equivalent neutralizing antibody titers to those fed a normal diet (ND). However, the HFD mice have reduced viral clearance early in infection. Analysis of the inflammatory immune response in HFD mice demonstrates a recruitment of neutrophils that was correlated with increased mortality and reduced clearance of the virus. This model recapitulates the increased disease severity associated with obesity and diabetes in humans with COVID-19 and is an important comorbidity to study with increasing obesity and diabetes across the world.

Data needs for integrated economic-epidemiological models of pandemic mitigation policies (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation policies implemented in response to it have resulted in economic losses worldwide. Attempts to understand the relationship between economics and epidemiology has lead to a new generation of integrated mathematical models. The data needs for these models transcend those of the individual fields, especially where human interaction patterns are closely linked with economic activity. In this article, we reflect upon modelling efforts to date, discussing the data needs that they have identified, both for understanding the consequences of the pandemic and policy responses to it through analysis of historic data and for the further development of this new and exciting interdisciplinary field.

PIKfyve-specific inhibitors restrict replication of multiple human coronaviruses in vitro but not in a murine model of COVID-19 (preprint)

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has claimed more than 6 million lives and continues to test the world economy and healthcare systems. To combat this pandemic, the biological research community has shifted efforts to the development of medical countermeasures, including vaccines and therapeutics. However, to date, the only small molecules approved for the treatment of COVID-19 in the United States are the nucleoside analogue Remdesivir and the protease inhibitor Paxlovid, though multiple compounds have received Emergency Use Authorization and many more are currently being tested in human efficacy trials. One such compound, Apilimod, is being considered as a COVID-19 therapeutic in a Phase II efficacy trial. However, at the time of writing, there are no published efficacy data in human trials or animal COVID-19 models. Here we show that, while Apilimod and other PIKfyve inhibitors have potent antiviral activity in various cell lines against multiple human coronaviruses, these compounds worsen disease in a COVID-19 murine model when given prophylactically or therapeutically.

Pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitors synergize with nucleoside analogs to block SARS-CoV-2 infection (preprint)

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the dearth of approved drugs to treat viral infections, with only ~90 FDA approved drugs against human viral pathogens. To identify drugs that can block SARS-CoV-2 replication, extensive drug screening to repurpose approved drugs is underway. Here, we screened ~18,000 drugs for antiviral activity using live virus infection in human respiratory cells. Dose-response studies validate 122 drugs with antiviral activity and selectivity against SARS-CoV-2. Amongst these drug candidates are 16 nucleoside analogs, the largest category of clinically used antivirals. This included the antiviral Remdesivir approved for use in COVID-19, and the nucleoside Molnupirivir, which is undergoing clinical trials. RNA viruses rely on a high supply of nucleoside triphosphates from the host to efficiently replicate, and we identified a panel of host nucleoside biosynthesis inhibitors as antiviral, and we found that combining pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitors with antiviral nucleoside analogs synergistically inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro and in vivo suggesting a clinical path forward.

Immunogenicity and In vivo protection of a variant nanoparticle vaccine that confers broad protection against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread globally. As SARS-CoV-2 has transmitted from person to person, variant viruses have emerged with elevated transmission rates and higher risk of infection for vaccinees. We present data showing that a recombinant prefusion-stabilized Spike (rS) protein based on the B.1.351 sequence (rS-B.1.351) was highly immunogenic in mice and produced neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2/WA1, B.1.1.7, and B.1.351. Mice vaccinated with our prototype vaccine NVX-CoV2373 (rS-WU1) or rS-B.1.351 alone, in combination, or as a heterologous prime boost, were protected when challenged with live SARS-CoV-2/B.1.1.7 or SARS-CoV-2/B.1.351. Virus titer was reduced to undetectable levels in the lungs post-challenge in all vaccinated mice, and Th1-skewed cellular responses were observed. A strong anamnestic response was demonstrated in baboons boosted with rS-B.1.351 approximately one year after immunization with NVX-CoV2373 (rS-WU1). An rS-B.1.351 vaccine alone or in combination with prototype rS-WU1 induced protective antibody- and cell-mediated responses that were protective against challenge with SARS-CoV-2 variant viruses.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 2020. We examine epidemiological evidence for this VOC having a transmission advantage from several perspectives. First, whole genome sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing provides an indication of changing prevalence of different genetic variants through time. Phylodynamic modelling additionally indicates that genetic diversity of this lineage has changed in a manner consistent with exponential growth. Second, we find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Third, we examine growth trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers at local area level across England, and show that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. Available SGTF data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases. Fourth, we assess the association of VOC frequency with independent estimates of the overall SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number through time. Finally, we fit a semi-mechanistic model directly to local VOC and non-VOC case incidence to estimate the reproduction numbers over time for each. There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage, with the estimated difference in reproduction numbers between VOC and non-VOC ranging between 0.4 and 0.7, and the ratio of reproduction numbers varying between 1.4 and 1.8. We note that these estimates of transmission advantage apply to a period where high levels of social distancing were in place in England; extrapolation to other transmission contexts therefore requires caution.

COVID-19 epidemic severity is associated with timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions (preprint)

Background: Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. International comparisons are hampered by highly variable conditions under which epidemics spread and differences in the timing and scale of interventions. Cumulative COVID-19 morbidity and mortality are functions of both the rate of epidemic growth and the duration of uninhibited growth before interventions were implemented. Incomplete and sporadic testing during the early COVID-19 epidemic makes it difficult to identify how long SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in different places. SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequences can be analyzed to provide an estimate of both the time of epidemic origin and the rate of early epidemic growth in different settings. Methods: We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were cross-referenced with dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths following maximum intervention. Phylodynamic methods were used to estimate the rate of early epidemic growth and proxy estimates of epidemic size. Findings: The time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is strongly associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 46% of variance in numbers infected at time of maximum intervention. The reproduction number is independently associated with epidemic severity. In multivariable regression models, epidemic severity was not associated with census population size. The time elapsed between detection of initial COVID-19 cases to interventions was not associated with epidemic severity, indicating that many locations experienced long periods of cryptic transmission. Interpretation: Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.

Evaluating the effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutation D614G on transmissibility and pathogenicity (preprint)

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of Spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large data set, well represented by both Spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the Spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.